AKAM *** Short

-- broken chart... broke down below  10, 20, 30, 50 DMAs as well as the uptrend line after earnings

-- bounced off the 30 WMA and the channel bottom, as a dead cat bounce

-- MACD and ADX are now starting to pinch DOWN, just starting
      (ADX is at 19.759) on the daily chart

-- 60 mins chart show the MACD challenged the 0 line and now turning back down

-- look for short entry tomorrow (May 2nd), 10 mins chart showing MACD divergence, might give you a nice entry at a higher price to short


 with a stop 1% above the high of 05/01($34.48)

-- look to add if it breaks down below Monday's low ($32.20)


Risking $1.22

Reward $2.11

CQB Lessons

I took the CQB trade after reading a SumZero-sent .pdf on CQB and banana prices. I then opened a trade on CQB as follows:

	Date/Time		Description		Amount		Net Cash Balance
	02/28/2011 09:31:37		Bought 100 CQB @ 16.76		-1,685.99		---
	02/28/2011 09:34:12		Bought 12 CQB Mar 19 2011 18.0 Call @ 0.69		-846.99		---
	02/28/2011 09:40:24		Bought 300 CQB @ 17.15		-5,154.99		---
	02/28/2011 09:46:29		Bought 7 CQB Apr 16 2011 19.0 Call @ 0.65		-470.24		---
	02/28/2011 09:49:15		Bought 7 CQB Apr 16 2011 18.0 Call @ 1.09		-778.24		---
	03/01/2011 11:30:05		Bought 9 CQB Mar 19 2011 15.0 Put @ 0.45		-421.74		---
	03/02/2011 16:37:38		Sold 200 CQB @ 14.82		2,953.95		---

So this is my analysis of this trade as I recounted it to KTA:

Sent at 4:20 PM on Wednesday

Chan: sold my cqb

as expected

bad numbers

at least on the surface

i learned quite a few lessons::

1) I didn't check the other sources, and do additional research. I checked S@ just now, and apparently some big trader dropped close to 450k puting huge amounts of April 16 puts!

I SHOULD HAVE checked S@ as well as a few other sources.

2) I chased the stock when I was trying to get in.

3) I didn't buy puts at the same time, should I should have.

4) I should have lightened up 50% or so, when FDP numbers came out. By the the thesis was already 50% dead.

5) My technicals were right. Volume and price do NOT lie. I didn't obey them well enough.

kaythiaung05: uh huh

Chan: 6) On the bright side, a) I kept my size small, and b) I hedged with puts, so I am still not as badly hurt as I could have been.

kaythiaung05: u still keeping ur puts?

Chan: 7) Next time if you are gonna play an earnings trade, keep ur size small! and HEDGE!

Especially for volatility-prone stocks like

high flyers momentum stocks

or

these known volatile food producers

8) I didn't keep the size small enough! NO MONEY MANAGEMENT!

9) I am overtrading! After my excitement at SLV trade and talking to Kevin and Melody, I am overtrading a bit too much.

10) NEED TO KEEP STOPS. DO it tonight.

11) STOP using MARGIN!

GSS and lessons

Got SMOKED, RIPPED A NEW ONE, DRAWN AND QUARTERED, POUNDED, hyperboles seem not to be enough in describing the 15% drop of GSS today and the ass-kicking I took.

Lessons:

1) Don't fall in love with any stock, and put it on a pedestal and have big dreams about it. Trade on realities, not on ideas of rainbows and pots of golds.

2) Set stops. I could have set stops many times with a less than 1k loss. Set stops at major trend breaks, pivot points after confirmations.

3) Don't trade on wishes and dreams. Trade on reality, facts, and probabilities.

4) Before crucial earning days, if you are holding big long positions, invest in some puts before earnings, such as 1-2k worth of puts. HEDGING is smart, and hedge smartly!!!

5) Don't trust just only the people who have the same bias as you do on message boards or anywhere else for that matter.

6) Must get better at charting, and reading price action.

7) Must do more fundamental analysis.

SNDK trade

02/09/11

Got whipped out at the open today. High was at 50.72.

Lessons:

-- I did not scale in and scale out. Needs to watch price action and scale in and out accordingly.

-- Exit on the CLOSE of the day. The confirmation comes on the CLOSE of the day.

Still watching. It could be a breakout back to 52 and above, and it will retest the 50 DMA and go back down.

Changed the stop to 50.55.

Don't want to get whipped out tomorrow morning. We will see if it was the right move and whether I am breaking rules moving stops.

Here's the latest chart I drew. Notice the symmetrical triangle?

SNDK trade

SNDK trade:

Took a SNDK short trade on a swing trade basis. (Per a Miyanville chart above).

02/04/11
Entry 150 shares at 47.1001 stop at 50.31 (confirmed violation of the minor trend line and 50 DMA).

02/08/11
Big up move day for SNDK after an analyst upgrade.
4.18% up on 12.45 mm volume.
High of 50.15.
Closed at 49.80.
The 20 DMA and 50 DMA all converged with the minor downtrend line at 49.64. So around that level is the big resistance. NDX finished up .5% or so, on light volume.

I am holding strong without moving my stop or wimping out. We will see how SNDK move the rest of the week, finding out on whether today was a test of the resistance and to fall back down, or if this is a true breakout. Reminding myself I am taking this trade as an experiment in that 1) I am using a proper logical stop, and 2) using correct position sizing.